North American Property Market Continues to Soften as Buyer-Friendly Conditions Extend into 2026
The North American property insurance market remains firmly in buyers' favour, with abundant capacity and increased competition driving significant rate reductions across much of the market.
This marks the seventh consecutive quarter of softening conditions, presenting substantial opportunities for well-managed property risks.
Market Headline: A Buyer's Market Deepens
Several key indicators highlight the strength of the current market:
- US property rates declined 10% in Q1 2026, compared to an 8% reduction in the previous quarter.
- CAT-exposed property rates decreased by approximately 16%.
- Global commercial insurance rates fell 5% in Q1 2026.
- Property rates declined 9% globally.
- Global property catastrophe reinsurance rates fell 14.7% at the January 1 renewals, the largest year-on-year decrease since 2014.
- Dedicated global reinsurance capital reached approximately $838 billion by the end of 2025.
- North American property insured losses totalled approximately $105 billion in 2025.
HWS Specialty currently accepts submissions with a minimum Total Insured Value (TIV) of USD 50 million and minimum premium of USD 100,000.
US Property Market Update
The North American property market has carried the momentum of 2025 into 2026, with insurers continuing to compete aggressively for business.
Catastrophe-exposed accounts have benefited most significantly, with reductions of around 16%, while non-catastrophe programmes have generally seen decreases of approximately 7%.
The Excess & Surplus (E&S) market has become increasingly competitive, with rate reductions commonly ranging from 12.5% to 20%.
Broadly, rate movements are tracking as follows:
Loss-Free Accounts
Loss-free accounts with favourable loss ratios can typically expect reductions of approximately 12.5%, with some achieving reductions exceeding 20%.
Large Accounts
Large accounts, measured by TIV and premium spend, are consistently securing reductions above 17.5%.
Mid-Market Accounts
Accounts with premiums below USD 750,000 and TIV below USD 500 million are seeing reductions in the range of 10% to 15%.
Smaller Middle-Market Risks
Smaller middle-market accounts are generally experiencing decreases of 5% to 7.5%, although some are reaching carrier minimum premiums and renewing flat.
A notable development in the market is the emergence of multi-year terms and forward rate locks from insurers seeking to secure their positions. HWS Specialty is also able to facilitate multi-year arrangements through the London market with anniversary review clauses.
Where Market Conditions Remain Challenging
While the broader market continues to soften, certain sectors still face challenging conditions.
These include:
- Wildfire and brush-zone risks, particularly Homeowners Associations, private schools, charter schools and not-for-profit organisations.
- High-hazard occupancies, including heavy manufacturing operations, recyclers and lumber-related businesses.
- Loss-impacted accounts, where flat renewals and modest increases remain common.
- Agriculture and food risks with high fire probable maximum losses (PMLs) or significant catastrophe value concentrations.
For these sectors, pricing improvements are being driven more by risk quality, loss mitigation and submission quality than by market-wide softening trends.
The Reinsurance Market Continues to Drive Downstream Pricing
The primary factor supporting softer property pricing is the strength of the global reinsurance market.
At the January 2026 renewal period:
- Global property catastrophe reinsurance rates declined 14.7% on a risk-adjusted basis.
- The global property catastrophe rate-on-line index decreased 12%.
- US property catastrophe reinsurance rates fell 12%.
- European property catastrophe reinsurance rates declined 15%.
- Non-loss-impacted catastrophe programmes generally renewed between 10% and 20% lower.
The market is being fuelled by substantial capital availability. Total dedicated reinsurance capital is projected to reach approximately USD 838 billion, including:
- USD 710 billion in traditional capital.
- USD 128 billion in alternative capital, including catastrophe bonds, insurance-linked securities (ILS) and sidecars.
This surplus capital continues to flow through into primary property pricing.
Catastrophe Outlook: What Could Change the Cycle?
Despite significant catastrophe activity in recent years, market conditions remain soft.
North American property insured losses reached an estimated:
- USD 105 billion in 2025.
- USD 137 billion in 2024.
- USD 98 billion in 2023.
If current trends continue, the market will likely have delivered three consecutive years of double-digit reductions by the end of 2026, bringing rates close to 50% below their 2023 peak.
Current market estimates suggest that a single catastrophe event, or a sequence of events, generating between USD 115 billion and USD 125 billion above expected annual catastrophe losses would be required to materially shift market pricing.
Annual catastrophe losses would likely need to exceed USD 150 billion before the market experiences a widespread hardening cycle.
Forecasters are also monitoring the potential influence of El Niño on the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
As David Price, Head of Property at HWS Specialty, notes:
"We're a major storm — or a series of mid-size events — away from this swinging the other way. For now, the advantage sits firmly with insureds."
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What This Means for Brokers and Insureds
The current market presents an opportunity for brokers and insureds to do more than simply reduce premium spend.
Key considerations include:
Reinvest Savings into Coverage
Use premium savings to buy back limits, reduce retentions and deductibles, and secure coverage enhancements before market conditions change.
Consolidate Programmes
Consider bringing multiple locations under master policies where doing so improves pricing and efficiency.
Explore Parametric Solutions
Parametric structures may help reduce catastrophe retentions for appropriate risks.
Balance Loyalty and Price
While new market entrants may offer lower pricing, established insurer relationships can provide longer-term stability when conditions eventually harden.
Lock in Favourable Terms
Where available, two-year deals and rate lock arrangements may provide protection against future market shifts.
Recent London Market Placements
Recent placements completed through the London market demonstrate the breadth of opportunities available for North American property risks:
Habitational – Harris County Wind
- TIV: USD 338 million
- Limit: USD 10 million
- Premium: USD 985,000
Pig Farm – Fire & Tornado Exposure
- TIV: USD 700 million
- Limit: USD 100 million
- Premium: USD 1.4 million
Hotel – Wildfire Exposure
- TIV: USD 110 million
- Limit: USD 25 million
- Premium: USD 400,000
Strengthening the Property Team
HWS Specialty is also pleased to welcome Joshua Rudd to the property team.
Joshua is responsible for account reviews and the initial work-up of submissions, helping ensure risks are presented to the London market in their strongest possible form. His work provides valuable insight into risk quality and positioning before marketing begins.
Talk to HWS Specialty
If you have a North American property risk you are working on and would like to explore London market solutions, contact the HWS Property team to discuss the opportunities available in today's market.